Coming up in 2009

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It’s a bit late to be doing a New Year’s post I know and a bit odd since pretty much any other blog I’ve looked at in the last couple of days is talking about Gaza but blogs like Socialist Unity and Lenin’s Tomb are covering events there much better than I could.

At the risk of looking stupid with the benefit of hindsight in a few months time I thought I would make a few predictions about what we should expect in the coming year in terms of my own particular preoccupation, the far ends of the political spectrum.

The left

 2009 is certainly going to be a more interesting year politically for people in my position. The main beneficiaries of recessions and times of crises tend to be those on the ends of the political spectrum, whether far left or far right. When you’re in danger of losing your job and house while a military power pulverises a tiny strip of land the idea that the present state of affairs isn’t in your best interests or likely to guarantee safety and stability looks a lot more plausible.

The next few months will see the steady working out of the consequences of the events on the financial markets in Autumn last year with unemployment rising, further government attacks on the unemployed, an attempt at a freeze on wages, more house repossessions and more businesses collapsing. Not good news for anyone really.

Without some spectacular organisational disaster, not implausible or even unlikely unfortunately, I reckon the left in general will experience healthy growth as a result of this. Anecdotal evidence from other Socialist Party members around the country strongly suggests that we’ve seen a definite increase in the numbers of people interested in our ideas or joining in the last few months. When I’m not in West Cumbria I’m a member of the Oxford branch and in the last few months we’ve grown so much we’ve split into two branches with talk of a third being set up.

While in general the left will benefit from the economy being at the top of people’s concerns at the moment it doesn’t necessarily follow every different organisation will do well. The largest group on the revolutionary left, the Socialist Workers’ Party, hasn’t been having a great time of it recently ( though it may only really be in trouble if sign up at fresher’s fairs drops off three years in a row…) and is undergoing a period of introspection and debate that could lead to a major split or gradual disintegration.

The other significant force that can be seen as ‘left-wing’ in a loose sense of the term is the other side of the RESPECT split Respect Renewal as they will probably have most of their electoral representation, one MP and a handful of councillors, removed in various elections  this year. That is, unless the current protests and meetings they’re organising around the Gaza crisis allows them to rejuvenate themselves.

Given the lack of a unified organisation like the former Socialist Alliance the increased size and strength of left-wing groups is unlikely to translate into electoral success except in isolated areas. This means that the main beneficiaries of the protest vote, even if those voters don’t generally agree with them, will be…

The right

It’s a big year for the far right in the long-term plan to copy their continental counterparts and enter the political mainstream. By the far right I mean the British National Party, there are other groups but these have either dwindled into insignificance, like the National Front, or were never significant in the first place, like the British People’s Party.

In June it’s the European elections and the BNP have a chance at winning a seat in the European Parliament in two areas, the North-West and Yorkshire. In 2004, the last Euro elections, it was the low vote in Cumbria that kept them out so in 2009 Cumbria will be on the front-line of BNP activity.

I don’t think I can make a prediction either way but it’s not an unlikely scenario that Nick Griffin will be one of 12 MEP’s for the North-West in June. Anti-fascists round here should be prepared for a large-scale BNP campaign featuring the regular involvement of national figures and bussing in of members from other areas for mass-leafleting and canvassing, as was the case on at least one day in Carlisle for the 2008 local elections.

Even if they don’t secured the desperately coveted postion MEP this year is likely to another one of steady growth for the far right with high votes at council elections and a more public profile despite the various hilarious mishaps that have accompanied this process, like losing the personal and work details of several thousand people.

Internal problems like the December 2007 split or losing the membership details of thousands of party members can unfortunately be glossed over as long as there is a sense that momentum and success in the party. This has ensured that fascists who had dropped out of active politics, like local party stalwart Martin Wingfield, returned like a bad smell. Expect them to vanish once again if it looks like they backed the wrong horse.

If the example of the National Front in the 1980’s anything to go by if the rise of the BNP is halted or stalled then inside the party different factions will turn on each other very quickly, and they know it. The constant air of sleaze and allegations of financial impropriety that have hung around chairman Nick Griffin for years is enough to ensure this.

The political temperature is going to heat up. This year is crucial for the far right and they will do their best not to let the opportunity slip through their fingers again. Political violence was a feature of the recent close council by-election in Whitehaven, a local member of an anti-racist group in the ward had his van smashed up on election night, in probably the first time in living memory in Cumbria.

In other news, I’ll promise try and update this blog more frequently than my last one but won’t and will make the same promise around this time next year.

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Filed under BNP, The Left

Tags: BNP, European elections, left-wing, New Year, politics, predictions, Socialist Party